Friday, March 23, 2007

Market seems to consolidate for the next move, the retest of the highs

I think the market will retest the top and even break it marginally. When you have a 38-50 percent fib retracement of the prior move that is a weak retracement and the move comes right back down and tests or breaks the lows. When you have a 62% fib retracement that is a strong retracement and it usually goes on to retrace the whole 100% of the prior move. That is what we will see now. 100% retracement and a test of the highs. I suspect the retest will first start with a sharp drop 100-130 points, and then a fast same day recovery and a close in to positive territory which will set up the retest of the prior highs.I look inside the market and I don't see anything that can lead it lower. The leaders of the last drop, the home builders and the financials are too oversold to go lower, they still need to work their oversold conditions. The Chinese Exchange, one of the reasons the market sold off on 2/27/07 is hitting new highs again.There is noone left to lead the market lower. However there are plenty of sectors to move this market higher. Tranports, basic materials, energy, large cap techs like csco msft orcl emc ibm are a few stock that come to my mind that can take this market higher.
10:18 PM

3 comments:

JakeGint said...

Did you make this comment today or on the 21st? Because I think this is what happened today, no. (Monday the 26th).

JakeGint said...

Let's try that again, so you can read it:

Didn't this exact thing happen today, with the sharp drop and the climb back to almost the start point?

zeus111 said...

My comments were for th March 23, 2007