Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Google seems ready to move and an S&P 500 flashback.

Above is the chart of the S&P 500 during 1991-1993 period. What I am noticing is that the market back then had a very slow trajectory rising about 8% per year. It is interesting to know that we did had similar problems back then as we are having now. Economy was growing slow,
the real estate market was declining; the banks were plagued from bad loan problems with Citigroup being on the verge of bankruptcy; many S&Ls went under; auto sales were problematic with Chrysler running into financial distress; jobless rate was persistently high with media talking about jobless recovery all the time. Despite all those problems the market did not manage to get in a bear market but it continued to rise even though the rise was at a very slow pace. I mention this to warn all the bears predicting Armageddon and loading up on puts every time the market sells off that the stock market does not have to crash or get into a bear phase just because there is a housing bust and subrime lenders are going bankrupt. We had been there before and the market could not even do a 10% correction (sounds familiar?). We all need to put things into perspective and keep an open mind about this. Yes the economy is coming off from probably the worst housing bust in decades but that does not necessarily mean we will see a bear market. Don't get me wrong I don't rule a bear market out but it does not have to happen.








Google broke a 3 month rising wedge on rising volume. A follow through tomorrow on higher volume should validate the move. I am willing to take the trade on an early retracement tomorrow. Target on the wedge is the high of last January.

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