TNH sets up a topping formation

The stock broke out of a H&S top formation on 7/23 on volume. Reaction rally started on 7/25 and it has stalled at the neckline for 4 days failing to break above it. The weakness has been pronounced today and yesterday as the stock price failed to make any progress despite the rally in the general markets. All technicals point to a continuation of the decline. Next level of support is at 104.93 and then 99.88.

Vimicro attempting an H&S bottom.

Before I get into Vimicro, I like the cross verification that I get from SOX which is making a new 52 week high today. So there is strength in the general market, there is strength in the semi sector and they all confirm the strength in Vimicro. A very positive situation.




Potential H&S bottom is obvious in the above chart, with the neckline at $7.32. I like the volume action today as it accelerates with the price coming off the bottom. Very constructive price action.


This is the profile on the stock: Vimicro International Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and marketing of mixed-signal semiconductor products and solutions for the consumer electronics and communications markets in the People's Republic of China. It offers mixed-signal multimedia processors for personal computer and embedded notebook cameras, as well as for mobile phones. The company provides system-level solutions that include integrated semiconductors, customizable firmware and software, software development tools, reference designs, and applications support. Vimicro sells its products through direct sales force to distributors, original equipment manufacturers, and design houses and module manufacturers. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Important facts to mention are that the company had 70% of the semiconductor for the PC camera worldwide market before the Vista roll out. They did miss their numbers during the calendar (not fiscal) Q4 of 2006 attributing it to the Vista transition but they still made money. They haven't reported numbers for calendar Q1 2007, they have changed public accountant and they will report caendar Q1 and Q2 on July 12, 2007, next week. Company has $3.00 per share in cash which I think offers a nice support for any Q1 or Q2 disappointment. Also the move from $24 to $5 probably discounted most or all of the negativity that may lay in these reports. Looking forward I can see many positives such as Vista ramp up, potential mobile phone contracts and a seasonally strong second half of the year. Fundamentally I believe that the worst is over. Just a slight positive piece of information next Thursday, in the earnings report, could be a catalyst for a sustainable move to the upside. Another important fact to note is that Janus and Fidelity own a big stake in the stock. Janus Worldwide Fund has 5.5% the outstanding shares in the stock while Fidelity OTC Fund has 4.5% of the outstanding shares in the stock and that is a vote of confidence http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=VIMC. Bottom line I like the stock and its potential and I bought some today at $5.96 with a stop at $4.8. The stop is way down and that is because I want to give the stock room to fluctuate. This is a six month to a year trade for me.

Charts that I like.

Mitshubishi financial, the largest bank of Japan, is forming a potential Head and Shoulders bottom, with a neckline resistance at $11.58. I bought here with a stop underneath $10.75. I think with patience it can go back to its recent highs at $16.75.

Above is the 6 year chart on MTU. The fact that it managed to hold above the 2001 peak is very constructive on a technical aspect.

The I Shares Japan above broke out of a symmetrical triangle suggesting that Japan could be back into play after being flat for some time.

CMED had a breakaway gap after an earnings release that shuttered expectation. It is consolidating into a flag formation setting up a further price expansion.

The longer term chart on CMED reveals that it has more room to go. I am thinking 2006 highs.


This is the recent mention on IBD about CMED. Very bullish fundamentals going forward.

"High-frequency sound waves can sketch images of a fetus in the womb. Similar ultrasound technology can also blast away at tumors.That high-intensity focused ultrasound technology, or HIFU, has been the core business for China Medical Technologies. (CMED) Sales of the tumor-fighting systems provided 60% of revenue last year. And there's room for more growth.But diagnosing diseases, rather than battling them, is China Medical's future.In March, the company bought a new diagnostic technology that could better spot prenatal disorders as well as cancers in adults.That system is called fluorescent in situ hybridization, or FISH. Combined with the firm's existing diagnostics line, it should kick in more than half of sales for fiscal 2007."The FISH business is now ready to take up the untapped huge market in China," Vice President Feng Zhu said in a conference call last week. Company officials weren't available to comment for this story.Analysts think diagnostic systems will deliver most of the revenue in coming years.Jinsong Du, an analyst with Credit Suisse, says rising incomes in China and heightened concerns about health are driving demand for diagnostic equipment. "Health checks and medical checks are becoming more popular, so that will give life to this segment," Du said. Credit Suisse advised China Medical on the FISH acquisition.The Beijing firm posted profit of $1.39 per American depositary receipt in fiscal 2006, which ended in March. That was up from $1 a share the year before, thanks mostly to the strength of the tumor-busting ultrasound gear.China Medical sharply hiked spending on marketing, research and development in the fourth quarter. It paid off.Profits UpQuarterly income was 40 cents a share, up 38% from a year ago. That was 29% more than analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected. Sales climbed 52% to $21.1 million. HIFU sales rose 32% to $12.6 million.Company officials say they've gone into Chinese hospitals to convince doctors their tumor treatment systems work. The firm also expects to sell the units in Korea and Japan this year.In April, it agreed to partner with France's EDAP, (EDAP) which sells a HIFU system in Europe for treating prostate cancer. If it gets the proper approvals, the team will sell China Medical's HIFU gear in Europe and Russia.Still, diagnostic systems are China Medical's fastest-growing line.Sales from its ECLIA systems — enhanced chemiluminescence — grew 74% in the quarter, to $8.5 million. That system analyzes blood, urine and other bodily fluids to track diseases like diabetes and hepatitis.The firm thinks that growth can go on, thanks to new ECLIA tests for other ailments such as Down syndrome and liver fibrosis.And China Medical has high hopes for the new FISH system.It paid $136.8 million for the technology, which it plans to fully develop and market. It will pay out another $40 million if the product succeeds. One benchmark: drawing $20 million in sales this fiscal year.The system, which involves tagging a DNA probe with fluorescent dye, is new in China.The firm is also selling the fluorescence microscope that reads the tests. It has already taken 100 orders from large Chinese hospitals. It expects to deliver the first 40 this month.Now it is working on Chinese state approval for the actual probes that will look for prenatal disorders. Later it plans to roll out FISH probes for cervical, breast, bladder and other cancers."This technology should also enable accurate diagnosis of some of the most significant disorders at a competitive cost," the company's chairman and chief executive, Xiao-dong Wu, said in a statement.The firm said the deal will be accretive in fiscal 2008. China Medical formed in 1999 around the HIFU system. The firm says it has treated more than 40,000 people with it. Listed On NasdaqIt launched its ECLIA system in 2004, and now has testing kits for more than 60 different conditions.The company's ADRs began trading on the Nasdaq in 2005. Within six months, the stock price almost tripled to nearly 45. It then fell into the doldrums until the most recent results gave it a 15% boost.China is a hot market for medical device makers right now.It has a fifth of the world's people. The government has made health care a top priority and it favors domestic players, China Medical says.Hospitals are looking to lure patients with fancier equipment. Spending on medical gear could climb 12% this year to $11.1 billion, the firm says.China Medical reported $70 million in sales last fiscal year. It expects to beat that by about 50% to 60% this year.Analysts expect a 12% gain in net income in the current year, to $1.56 a share. The company is still looking for more medical hits. In March, it signed a 10-year deal with longtime partner Peking University to found a joint medical lab. "